1 in 3

For any 5 Card Draw players, this might be of interest. It's a fairly basic concept, but one that can be used profitably. Many situations occur where a bluff is likely. Be aware of these situations and learn to take advantage of them, as in the case below.

PokerStars Game #13155617857: 5 Card Draw Limit ($1/$2) - 2007/11/10 - 12:59:56 (ET)
Table 'Echemmon' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Zophar101 ($26.25 in chips)
Seat 2: t4nk1r ($98 in chips)
Seat 3: smart-not ($52 in chips)
Seat 4: asiaollie ($110 in chips)
Seat 5: nxtcase ($40 in chips)
Seat 6: leoforostheo ($30.75 in chips)
leoforostheo: posts small blind $0.50
Zophar101: posts big blind $1
*** DEALING HANDS ***
Dealt to Zophar101 [8h 3h Qh As 3c]
t4nk1r: folds
smart-not: folds
asiaollie: folds
nxtcase: calls $1
leoforostheo: calls $0.50
Zophar101: checks
leoforostheo: discards 2 cards
Zophar101: discards 3 cards [8h Qh As]
Dealt to Zophar101 [3h 3c] [Ah Jc 7d]
nxtcase: discards 1 card
leoforostheo: checks
Zophar101: checks
nxtcase: bets $2
leoforostheo: folds
Zophar101: calls $2
*** SHOW DOWN ***
nxtcase: shows [9h 5s 3s 6d 4s] (high card Nine)
Zophar101: shows [Ah 3h Jc 7d 3c] (a pair of Threes)
Zophar101 collected $6.75 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $7 | Rake $0.25
Seat 1: Zophar101 (big blind) showed [Ah 3h Jc 7d 3c] and won ($6.75) with a pair of Threes
Seat 2: t4nk1r folded before the Draw (didn't bet)
Seat 3: smart-not folded before the Draw (didn't bet)
Seat 4: asiaollie folded before the Draw (didn't bet)
Seat 5: nxtcase (button) showed [9h 5s 3s 6d 4s] and lost with high card Nine
Seat 6: leoforostheo (small blind) folded after the Draw

There's a chance that he does have a big hand here, but not likely. He's going to improve to a 5 card hand less than 20% of the time. He will pair occasionally, but usually when an opponent pairs(J's or lower), he doesn't bluff(bet), but checks. I don't know why, but this is very common. A check right behind is the best route here.

To make a profit here, you only need to be correct in calling 1 in 3 times to show a profit. He's going to miss the draw more than 1 in 5, so when he's betting(everything is read dependent), 4 of 5 times he is likely bluffing. Say he did pair a high card like an A or K and decided to bet this. You could drop it down to 3 of 5. Even if it were at 2 of 5. That means he's still bluffing 40% of the time. You only need to be right 33%.

Now, I'd say I make these calls 5 or 6 times out of 100, because they don't present themselves too often. It all depends on the players at the table. If there is a 4 straight or flush raiser at the table, the likelyhood of the situation increases. Against these players I'll occasionally call down with as little as AK.